An ageing workforce and increasing scarcity of skilled labour demands change on many fronts, write Nick Dimopoulos and David Walker
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Lifelong learning challenges educators, governments, firms and individuals
Lifelong learning challenges educators, governments, firms and individuals
What is lifelong learning?
In a system of lifelong learning, people enter and re-enter
formal learning at many points throughout their lives. It amounts
to a fundamental change in the way Australia handles learning for
work.
Why is lifelong learning a key long-term national issue?
Most Australians have grown up in a world where young workers
have provided a constant stream of new labour and new skill into
the workplace. This process has been going on ever since the baby
boomer generation began to join the workforce in the late 1960s.
The result is that education in Australia has concentrated on the
first 25 years of life.
However, this process is now coming to an end. Both the labour
supply and labour demand are changing.
Labour supply changes
In the late 1980s, people aged 45 or over made up just 24 per
cent of the labour market. By 2016, projections say, that figure
will rise to 44 per cent. In other words, young people alone will
not provide the new skills that drive organisations to innovate and
grow.
The good news is that this growing group of over-45s will be far
healthier and better-educated than any similar group of over-45s in
Australia's history. Far more able, in other words, to keep using
their skills and talents.
Labour demand changes
Making the challenge greater still is the fact that the skills
needed for work throughout a lifetime are diversifying. Jobs which
once changed little in the course of a worker's career are now
changing every few years. Qualifications achieved at age 20 are
more and more likely to be out of date by the time you turn 50.
How much will we have to change?
- True lifelong learning happens relatively rarely in today's
Australia. Encouraging it will require educators, firms and
individuals to change the way they behave. In 2001, just 3.5 per
cent of people aged 45 to 64 undertook formal study or training,
compared with 56 per cent of people aged 15 to 24.
- Our current model of vocational education and training, aimed
mostly at the young, is unlikely to cope with the change. It is
already failing to deliver the skills we need. For example, the
Reserve Bank has begun to note the shortages of skilled labour in
fields such as mining, construction, engineering, health and
business services.
- One key to lifelong learning is to ensure workers at least
complete secondary education. Australia has a huge opportunity to
improve here. In 2002, 27 per cent of Australians aged 25 to 34 had
not completed secondary education; on this indicator, we rank 23rd
out of 30 OECD countries. But Access Economics estimates that by
raising the secondary school completion rate from 80 per cent to 90
per cent, we would add 1.1 per cent a year to GDP by 2040 - almost
$10 billion a year in today's money.
- Current education opportunities available to matured-age
workers create a personal dilemma. To improve your skills you must
invest time and money. Over recent decades the increased pay that
you can expect from improving your skills typically has not repaid
that commitment of time and money. As the supply and demand for
labour changes, the returns on investing in your skills should
improve. But we may not have proof of this for two decades yet -
and by then it will be too late.
How must we change?
Educators, governments, firms and individuals have all taken
some steps to cope with the changing workforce and skill needs. But
each group needs to do more - to embrace the challenge of lifelong
learning, rather than merely trying to cope with it.
- Schools need to ensure that students who are
not leaving for a highly suitable job complete Year 12. In general,
secondary school completion is the best "vaccination" against
unemployment, and also the best way to help individuals succeed at
lifelong learning. Schools are generally doing a good job of
enabling lifelong learning, adaptability and innovation. But
universities and TAFEs need to devote more resources to the
task.
- Universities and TAFEs need to offer and
promote courses that enable lifelong learning, adaptability and
innovation. That will often mean shorter courses, with different
qualifications attached. As well as offering "bundles of learning"
wrapped up as "degrees", institutions will need to offer "modular
learning". Whether providing data modelling expertise to a
professional marketing analyst, historical knowledge to a teacher
or sales skills to a manufacturing technician, educators need to
better support the diversifying needs of the workforce.
Universities and TAFEs will also need to support a variety of
learning strategies used by mature-age workers. And they need to
find ways to sell the benefits of lifelong learning to employers
and particularly to individuals - who so far aren't buying most of
what the higher education providers are offering.
- Employers need to re-examine attitudes to
training. Skills diversification and shrinking labour supply are
already making it harder to simply hire workers who already possess
the right skills, and this trend will continue. So employers will
more often need to hire workers and then train them. Employers will
need to understand the different motivations of older workers as
their role in the workforce grows. Employers also need to
re-examine how they design and develop the jobs in which workers
work.
- Individuals need to take more responsibility
for their own learning, recognising that the job market is
changing.
- Governments should work together to build a
national workforce development strategy. The states should then
implement this strategy.
Beyond this, the entire society needs to start thinking
about learning as a process that happens throughout life,
rather than in the first two decades or so.
Who should pay?
The effort to promote lifelong learning will take substantial
resources. Firms, governments and the individual all benefit from
getting lifelong learning right, so all should contribute to the
cost.