CEDA chief executive David Byers explains the thinking behind Dr Knox's pension age proposal.
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Pension age: 97 years on, time for a rethink
Pension age: 97 years on, time for a rethink
Posted : Monday, November 23, 2009
Australian 65-year-olds first received the national age pension
in 1910. It was a time we can now barely imagine: the year when
Harry Houdini made Australia's first controlled, powered airplane
flight, a year when a week's wages might be 40 shillings ($4), a
year when the Newtown Jets defeated the Rabbitohs for the NSW Rugby
League premiership and Collingwood beat Carlton to claim the VFL
crown.
That first age pension was 10 shillings a week.
At the time, if you were a man, your life expectancy at birth
was just 56 years old. Just one in 25 Australians was 65 or older.
If you were a typical 65-year-old Australian man, you'd probably
had a hard life of manual labour. And being one of the few who made
it 65, you could expect to live just 11 more years.
But being 65 today is not what it was. In recent decades,
Australian life expectancies have shot up. Ninety-seven years after
the introduction of the age pension, one in 7 Australians is 65 or
older. Today's typical 65-year-old man can expect almost 20 more
years of life - and women almost 23 more years. And those numbers
are still going up.
Make no mistake: this is great news. It means people who would
have been long gone are still alive. Medical science and
preventative health measures have reduced fatalities from heart
disease, many types of cancers, and smoking-related conditions like
emphysema. And what evidence we have suggests people are not just
living longer, but staying healthy and enjoying life longer too.
These days 65-year-olds are setting off to trek the Himalayas.
But along with the good news comes a different story. More than
15 per cent of Australians are now 65 or over. In another 40 years,
we can expect a quarter of all Australians to be 65 or older. Even
with private superannuation doing its part, that's a lot of people
receiving an age pension - and with a smaller proportion of
working-age people paying the taxes that fund those pensions.
That's why CEDA believes it's time to look at raising the
pension age - slowly, sensibly, and over a number of years. In a
new CEDA paper, actuarial expert Dr David Knox argues that we
should move the pension age up gradually from 65 to 67 between 2015
and 2022.
A slightly higher pension age would not only reflect how the
world is changing. It would also boost our economy, encourage more
people to stay in the workforce and ease the tax bill that we
Australians will have to pay in the years ahead. Dr Knox suggests
it would save the budget about $800 million a year in today's
dollars.
It's hardly a radical proposal. Wealthy Iceland and Norway
already wait until 67 to confer the age pension, and countries like
the US, the UK and Germany have all started raising their pension
ages. Indeed, Australia is already doing something similar. Since
1995 Australian women have waited a little longer each year for the
pension. Women now wait until 63, and by 2014 they'll receive the
pension at 65.
As well as looking at raising the pension age to 67, we should
consider an ongoing linkage to changes in Australians' likely life
expectancy. After all, if the current trend continues, by 2047 the
average Australian 67-year-old women will face another 30 years of
life. At that point, even a pension age of 67 will seem faintly
silly. We'd be better off with a system that responds to changing
realities and alters the preconception about when you are "too old"
to work.
A higher pension age doesn't mean everyone should work longer.
By their mid-sixties, some people will suffer medical conditions
that leave them unable to put in a full workweek. And thankfully,
Australia already has a safety net for these people - the
disability support pension, paid at the same rate and with the same
broad rules as the age pension. Indeed, the disability support
pension has been used to help many women in the early sixties as
the female pension age has risen. Dr Knox's proposal is clear about
this: if we raise the pension age, those Australians who qualify
for the disability support pension would continue to do so.
Thankfully, 65 isn't what it used to be. We should look at
fine-tuning our pension system to respond to that fact.
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