Predicting commodity cycles

Predicting commodity cycles

WA
Mar 31
Western Australians are well aware of the cyclical nature of commodities, with successive shifts in gold, wool, natural gas and iron ore pricing having shaped the economic and social fortunes of the state. With adjustments in global commodity prices once again impacting WA in 2015, CEDA's panel of experts will share their insights on the outlook for the economy and trajectory of commodity markets.

Speakers

Paula Gadsby, Principal Economist, Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Western Australia
Professor Peter Hartley, BHP Billiton Chair of Economics, The University of Western Australia
Julius Matthys, Vice President, Corporate Affairs WA, BHP Billiton
Dr Ric Simes, Director, Deloitte Access Economics

Event overview

WA’s major trading partner, China, is experiencing a period of economic readjustment, as are a number of other important trade markets throughout the Indo-Pacific region. These shifts will undoubtedly influence key commodity prices in ways that are difficult to forecast. China, India and ASEAN nations could become larger consumers of a range of commodities as their economies develop. The timing of this new demand and the impact of large export capacity expansions will play a large role in the length and severity of any downturn.

While predicting commodity cycles isn't an exact science, there are a range of economic drivers and tools that can be used to forecast pricing and demand trends with greater accuracy. At this event, CEDA’s panellists will explore questions such as:

  • What are the forecasts for WA’s key commodities in the year ahead?
  • How will WA’s major commodity markets evolve through the 2020s?
  • Will China’s transition towards greater internal consumption be successful, and if so, how would this impact WA?
  • What other markets are critical to WA’s commodities and how are these markets tracking?
  • How will the WA and Australian economies adjust during a period of uncertainty?

Meet the speakers

Paula Gadsby
Principal Economist, Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Western Australia

Professor Peter Hartley
BHP Billiton Chair of Economics, The University of Western Australia

Julius Matthys
Vice President, Corporate Affairs WA, BHP Billiton

Dr Ric Simes
Director, Deloitte Access Economics

Meet the facilitator

Mark Stickells
Director, Energy and Minerals Institute, The University of Western Australia

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