Better targeting affordable housing could house 19,000 additional families

Better targeting of Australia's existing affordable housing stock could provide homes for almost 19,000 families currently on social housing waitlists, according to new research from the Committee for Economic Development of Australia (CEDA) and Urbis, Fit for Purpose: Aligning Affordable Housing with Need.

The research finds affordable housing is routinely going to households who do not need it, while eligible low-income renters are locked out. State by state, the number of waitlisted households that better targeting could house includes:

Affordable housing missing its target

CEDA and Urbis' analysis shows fewer than one in five rentals (19 per cent) affordable to a low-income household actually goes to one. The gap is widest in Perth, where only 10 per cent of affordable rentals reach a low-income household, and Canberra, where it is 8 per cent. In Sydney and Melbourne, the rate is 18 per cent. 

Just 36 per cent of households eligible for social housing are living in a private rental they can afford, falling below 30 per cent in Sydney, Perth and Canberra.

The problem starts with how Affordable rents are defined. Rents are set as a discount to market rates, not as a share of what a household actually earns, so a discount on a high rent is still a high rent. Eligibility criteria also run from very low to moderate incomes, allowing higher earners to absorb stock meant for those most in need. In Sydney, an individual earning $148,000 a year can qualify for affordable housing. A three-bedroom apartment in St Leonards was recently advertised as "affordable" at $1,046 a week, more than $54,000 a year.

"Affordable housing is meant to relieve pressure on the social housing waitlist, but right now it's not reaching the households who need it most. If we could move just one in ten households off the waitlist and into affordable housing that actually matches their income, almost 19,000 families would have a safe, secure home today, without building a single new dwelling," says Danika Adams, CEDA Chief Research and Content Officer.

“A home isn’t simply affordable because it’s cheaper than the market. If the rent is still beyond the reach of the household it is meant to support, then the system isn’t working. A nationally consistent approach would give Australia a much clearer foundation for delivering housing where it is needed most, and for targeting investment,” Mark Dawson, National Housing Lead at Urbis, said.  

The research also finds Australia's social housing stock is shrinking as a share of all dwellings, down from 5.2 per cent in 1997 to 3.9 per cent in 2025. Since 2014, the national waitlist has grown from 155,000 households in 2014 to 190,000 in 2025, and the share of waitlisted households classified as "greatest need" has risen from 28 per cent to 41 per cent.

The research estimates Australia needs to deliver 21,000 new social dwellings a year to clear the waitlist by 2035. The Housing Australia Future Fund's target of 40,000 social and affordable homes by 2029 is a useful start, but falls well short of closing the gap.

With social housing supply constrained, pressure has shifted onto the private rental market. Advertised rents rose 48 per cent in the decade to March 2025, well ahead of inflation (30 per cent) and wage growth (26 per cent) over the same period.

One in five renter households is a low-income household in financial stress. Two in five recipients of Commonwealth Rent Assistance remain in rental stress even after receiving the payment, and seven in ten recipients are eligible for the maximum rate, meaning further rent rises would generate no additional support.

"We don't actually know how much Affordable housing exists in Australia, or who is living in it. It's delivered through billions of dollars in grants, concessional finance, tax concessions and planning incentives, yet there's no consistent data on the stock or the incomes of the households occupying it. Reporting on both should be a standing condition of public funding, because you cannot fix targeting you cannot measure," adds Danika.

The research highlights a fundamental data gap at the heart of Australia's Affordable housing system. Affordable housing is delivered through a patchwork of public grants, concessional finance, tax concessions and planning incentives, yet no national data exists on the total stock or who occupies it. CEDA and Urbis are calling for improved data collection, a better approvals system and better targeting of Affordable housing so that Affordable and social housing genuinely reaches the households who need it most.

CEDA MEDIA CONTACT
Lisa Harmer 
Director of Communications and Advocacy 
Mobile: 0436 379 688 
Email: lisa.harmer@ceda.com.au

URBIS MEDIA CONTACT
Courtney Robinson 
Head of Marketing, Media & Communications 
Mobile: 0493 277 576 
Email: courtneyrobinson@urbis.com.au