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27/04/2026
As we ramp up to budget season across the country, the scale of pre-budget activity and commentary feels more elevated than usual. A ‘perfect storm’ of budget challenges, including population ageing, cost of living and affordability pressures, and four significant global shocks in six years (COVID, the war in Ukraine, Liberation Day and the war in Iran) is sharpening the focus on both tax and spending. The reality is that both have reached new highs relative to GDP as the scale and scope of government involvement in our economy continues to grow.
Amid announcements of cuts to NDIS spending and debate about the taxation of gas exports and capital gains, the latest report to government of the Economic Inclusion Advisory Committee (of which I am a member) was also released. It shows that, notwithstanding record government spending overall, support for many of those who need it most remains inadequate. For the most disadvantaged Australians, rates of deep disadvantage have increased significantly.
Solving these challenges will take more than one budget, serious public debate and a return to long term fiscal discipline. Our progressive tax-transfer system has historically been shaped by targeting spending based on need and capacity to pay but this focus has weakened over recent decades. Re-establishing a clear consensus on Australia’s social compact – what government should provide, and what individuals provide for themselves – must be a priority. Likewise, we must reignite economic dynamism and innovation, creating room for businesses to invest and grow and incentivising participation and work. Estimates from the Parliamentary Budget Office suggest that on current trends personal income tax receipts will grow to the equivalent of 14 ½ per cent of GDP by the mid-2030s. It is hard to imagine individuals not looking to government to provide more in that scenario.
Building consensus on these issues will be challenging and will take time, but if we don’t begin that hard work now, we risk eroding many of the institutions and processes that we rely on to maintain a strong economy and democracy. We will be releasing our guide to assessing the Federal budget on our website later this week
Speaking of topics that matter for our future, I am looking forward to CEDA’s Climate and Energy Summit on Thursday in Melbourne. It is a packed agenda and I am excited for the important conversations and debate it will generate – including on the taxation of gas in Australia. Last tickets are available for those who haven’t secured their seat yet.
As AI continues to shape workplaces, economies and societies, it has never been more important for leaders to understand the latest technology advances, policy developments and governance challenges. Following sold out events in 2023, 2024, and 2025 - CEDA is excited to announce the 2026 AI Leadership Summit - to be held in Sydney at ICC on October 27. Make sure you save the date, more detailed information coming soon.
We are delighted to welcome Victorian Treasurer, the Hon. Jaclyn Symes, back to the CEDA stage to deliver the 2026 State Budget address on 8 May in Melbourne.
At our Health Delivery QLD conference being held in Brisbane on 21 May, we will explore practical, system-level solutions for building a more connected, adaptable and future-ready health system for Queensland.
To finish, I would like to warmly welcome SEC Victoria and Forrest Research Foundation as new CEDA members. Thank you for joining us.