CEO Update: How is Australia tracking?

We launched our Progress 2050 SWOT Dashboard a year ago to better understand the long-term drivers of Australia’s prosperity. The CEDA team has updated the dashboard to reflect the changing global and national context. 

The dashboard summarises our assessment of the nation’s strengths, weaknesses, threats and opportunities, and helps us to focus on the structural shifts required to ensure Australia maintains a strong economy and social compact into the future.

Unsurprisingly, many of our strengths and weaknesses remain the same. But how we respond to them matters more than ever, given the shifting opportunities and threats we face.

While the stability of our domestic political and financial systems remains a strength, the external environment has clearly become more volatile and uncertain. This is evidenced by the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, which this year reached an all-time high. Similarly, globalisation and openness to trade and investment have underpinned decades of Australian economic growth, yet global trade and investment flows are now increasingly disrupted.

Protectionist impulses are on the rise in the face of US trade policy, and support for the global rules-based system is seemingly eroding. How business and government respond will have an important bearing on future opportunities. For now, greater friction and uncertainty are clearly weighing on business investment and decision making.

Our updated analysis puts a spotlight on AI and its transformational impact. Recent Productivity Commission estimates suggest AI could increase labour productivity by 4.3 per cent over the next decade. This opportunity is badly needed and requires careful stewardship, not least because of the need to proactively address labour market disruptions and to build the skills and capabilities needed.

There are also clear risks in getting regulation wrong. The EU’s AI Act is expected to diminish the productivity gains of AI over the next five years by around 15 per cent. More broadly, Australians remain among the most sceptical globally when it comes to AI adoption, with only 44 per cent believing the benefits of AI outweigh drawbacks, according to Stanford HAI’s 2025 AI Index Report.

Building trust is critical and underscores the importance of CEDA’s ongoing work enabling members to navigate these challenges through our AI community of best practice and AI leadership summit.

The updates to our SWOT Dashboard confirm the need for sustained reforms focused on strengthening both our economy and our social compact. Our economic weaknesses persist, notably in economic dynamism. So too does our failure to address poverty, housing affordability and intergenerational disadvantage.

Amid heightened uncertainty, there is a temptation to respond with even greater intervention and regulation. This risk aversion ignores the costs of forgone opportunity. Now more than ever, we need greater economic agility and dynamism, and corresponding risk appetite, to respond to the growing frictions and challenges we face.

CEDA members have exclusive access to the dashboard to inform your strategic thinking and decisions. For non-members, there is a high-level summary on our website.

In addition to the SWOT Dashboard, our Goal Tracker measures the progress Australia is making on our six Progress 2050 goals to secure long-term prosperity for all Australians. Our recommendations summary outlines the evidence-based policies we are pursuing to achieve these goals.

The SWOT update is a reminder that we cannot take future prosperity for granted. Australia’s economic future will hinge on how well we navigate the technological disruption and geopolitical realignment that is happening right now.

We encourage you to explore the updated SWOT Dashboard and to use these insights in your own decision-making. Together, we can chart a path to a more dynamic, sustainable and inclusive Australia. As always, reach out to the CEDA team if you would like to discuss any of these findings further. 

Melinda Cilento
Chief Executive, CEDA