Navigating Uncertainty: Collaborative Pathways for Australia’s Energy Transition

Australia’s energy sector must boldly navigate current uncertainty if we are to maintain a reliable, cost effective and sustainable energy system into the future. 

Over the coming decade much of our baseload coal fired power will retire after decades of faithful service. The transition to an energy system predominantly powered by renewables was never going to be simple. However, it is neither the technological solutions nor the financial means that are currently our greatest barriers.  

The energy sector is not immune to the uncertainty that precedes any federal election and amidst considerable geopolitical and economic swings. Global settings have shifted, bringing a host of challenges that threaten to stall our progress towards Net Zero and a sustainable energy future. 

The 2020s were anticipated to be a turning point in the energy transition with accelerated deployment of renewables into the energy mix. However, supply chain disruptions, global economic uncertainty following the COVID pandemic, the Ukraine war and more recently, US foreign policy changes, have resulted in delays and cost blow outs. 

These challenges in project deliverability are impacting investor confidence. Already in 2025, we have seen several major clean energy projects paused or cancelled.

In these moments of uncertainty, the renewables sector is forced to consider how best to navigate complex terrain and the speed at which it needs to forge ahead to meet net zero ambitions. Key enablers identified include focussing on priority projects, planning for future uncertainty and enabling a just transition. 

By bringing together governments, investors, industries and communities, we can de-risk the investment environment to attract mobile capital to support Australia’s energy transition.

Prioritising projects - focus on quick wins

We are already seeing developers refocus on mature technologies like solar and increasingly batteries, which can be rolled out at scale with reasonable confidence. Governments can prioritise action and stimulate wider industry momentum by targeting funding and policy agendas to where they can have most impact to unlock opportunities. Further investment in the grid, planning reform, diversification of supply chains and future workforce are areas where targeted co-ordination and support can accelerate renewables deployment. 

Investors seek a stable policy and regulatory framework that can provide the certainty needed to commit capital to long-term projects. Governments play a crucial role in creating this conducive environment by ensuring clarity and consistency in their energy policies. By aligning regulatory frameworks and market settings, we can attract the necessary investments to drive the transition forward. 

A clear example of this can be seen in the National Renewable Energy priority list: an agreed selection of projects identified by state and federal energy ministers. The scheme’s goal of providing more certainty for projects in the regulatory and approval process importantly bridges the concerns of industry and investors to facilitate the renewable transition. 

Planning for uncertainty – maintain flexibility

If recent history has taught us anything it is that we must accept and plan for uncertainty during the clean energy transition. This can be achieved by charting a path forward that is clear on priorities and is both flexible and responsive to external drivers.

The energy sector can leverage learnings from other sectors, such as the adaptive planning approaches the water industry has employed for long term resilience through weather, economic and political cycles. 

The concept of adaptive pathways allows us to plan for multiple scenarios, keeping our options open and flexible, enabling a rapid and nuanced response at the right time. This approach involves mapping out various plausible futures and making informed least regret decisions that keep as many viable future pathways open as possible. 

Pathfinder projects can be employed to test the feasibility and timing of deployment of options. Examples of these include many of the Power-to-X projects, which have been developed at pilot scale whilst commercial feasibility of utility scale remains evasive. It is widely recognised that the clean fuels provided by Power-to-X technologies are essential for decarbonisation. When viewing this through an adaptive planning lens, the industry must keep these alternative fuel projects and pathways open and be ready to take them forward.

A just transition

We are all part of the transition, however regional communities and First Nations people will bear a disproportionate impact of renewable energy projects. Communities and First Nations peoples’ involvement is not only a matter of equity but also a practical necessity for the success of energy projects. Economic development catalysed by the energy transition provides an opportunity for regional uplift. 

Engaging these stakeholders early in the planning process helps build trust and acceptance, addressing concerns and incorporating their valuable insights. Successful partnerships and co-development models can serve as exemplars, demonstrating how communities can benefit from and contribute to the energy transition. 

Partnering with Indigenous led organisations like Original Power, a not for profit which is spearheading community owned clean energy systems for communities, ensures the energy transition is both just and sustainable. In Yuelamu, this approach is supporting a community-led microgrid feasibility study to tackle energy poverty with reliable, renewable power.

Moving forward despite uncertainty

While the road ahead is undoubtedly challenging, it is imperative that we continue purposefully with the work that can be done now. The current uncertainties should not deter us from carrying on with the transition to renewables, allowing us to accelerate pace when conditions are more favourable. By focusing on areas where we have clarity and control, we can lay the groundwork for future acceleration. Identifying and prioritising key projects, planning for uncertainty and fostering a stable investment environment for a just transition are steps we can take to maintain momentum. 

Navigating the uncertainties of the energy transition requires a collaborative, adaptive, and inclusive approach. By working together, planning for multiple futures and engaging all stakeholders, we can de-risk investments and ensure that Australia's energy transition gets back on track.